BAGHDAD BOOMERANG

-- How Bush and Blair fulfilled Osama’s Iraq agenda --

Rewind to the 21st day of Operation Iraqi Freedom. Coming from Baghdad, the footages of Iraqis celebrating the fall of Saddam Hussein ultimately lent some life to the plastic grins of Bush and Blair. The western channels went as hysterical, seeking symbolism even in rampant looting. But what was it really that the free world of the Bushes and the Blairs was flaunting as the vindication of their cause?

Granted, looting is natural in wartime. But when cameras caught a large gathering of what the Western news channels described as Shiite men shouting the glory of God, even the earnest anchors of BBC and CNN didn’t realise that they were rejoicing at a mob of Islamist hardliners cheering the end of the secular Iraq. The BBC anchor even bothered to translate the mood and the chants for us: "They have reopened mosques shut down by the regime, they are shouting there is only one God, they are shouting God is great" etc etc.

That was just the beginning. Last Tuesday, Shiites took to Baghdad’s roads in hundreds to commemorate the death of Imam Hussein, prophet Mohammed’s cousin. This weekend, thousands of them started marching towards Kerbala _ one of their holiest shrines. No wonder that liberal Iraqis are apprehensive that underground Shiite groups like the Dawa Party can emerge quickly in any power vaccuum, tapping religious sentiments evident in the capital and elsewhere. Some reports in the Western media suggest that even Sunnis have organised religious movements with the help of economic and tribal interests groups and are expected to compete for authority in the post-war chaos.

Now didn’t Bush tell us this war was part of his fabled anti-terror drive to protect pax Americana _ the free, secular and democratic world? And didn’t he want us to hear between his teeth that terror usually emanates from Islamic fundamentalism? And still he is happy to have Shiite hardliners star in the most-cherished promos of the American brand of freedom. For once, Uncle Sam looks trapped.

Irony apart, the Iraq potboiler yields many losers. The biggest among them is secular liberalism. For months, Bush administration desperately wanted to convince us of Saddam’s Al Qaeda links. But if the allied war is for Iraqi freedom, it is as much for the American oil empire and, tragically, for Al Qaeda. Warned William O. Beeman, director of Middle East Studies at Brown University, before the war: "The Bush administration’s assessment of Al Qaeda’s relationship with Saddam Hussein remains seriously flawed. If it is not rethought, America may win the war in Iraq _ for Osama bin Laden."

In the ‘70s, when the Baath Party kept religion out of political life and sought a Arab nationalist identity, the veil was an uncommon sight in Baghdad, bars flourished in many neighbourhoods and the government was known to arrest people solely on the grounds of regular visits to mosques.

Sustained US threat gradually weakened the Baath Party’s secular stand since Gulf War I and the same government has shuttered bars along Abu Nawas Street, an avenue named after a medieval poet fond of wine and women. Saddam himself reconciled to praying five times a day to seek legitimacy through Islam. According to a pre-war Washington Post report, religious leaders estimate that over the past decade, more than 100 mosques have been constructed in Baghdad. God is great was emblazoned on the Iraqi flag. At Baghdad University, few, if any, women covered their hair till the ’80s. Today, a majority do so. At a meeting of the Federation of Iraqi Women a couple of months back, once a symbol of the rights the Baath Party bestowed on women, all the women in attendance were veiled.

As the fear of America grew in Iraq, so did the power of Muslim clerics who had little clout only a few years back. People turned to faith, desperate for relief from the woes of war and more than a decade of sanctions. Saddam poured religious rhetoric into his speeches, linking defence of Iraq to jehad. Despite a resource crunch, his government was building two of the world’s largest mosques in Baghdad and lavished patronage on Shiite Muslim shrines. But Saddam’s original secular image survived and made him an Al Qaeda target.

The liberal Iraqis fear the future more than the war. After the hardline celebrations in Baghdad suburbs, it seems whatever comes next will not be tolerant. Do they see Al Qaeda lurking in the shadow waiting for the regime to fall? Perhaps.

Notes Alex Standish, editor of Jane’s Intelligence Digest: "I can’t see any reason why Saddam, coming from a Arab nationalist, fairly secular background, would have any interest in supporting or promoting an extremist and militant religious ideology that would ultimately be opposed to everything he has ever stood for."

Similarly, Osama bin Laden is opposed to all secular leaders in the Arab world. A month before the war began, Osama released a tape on February 11 asserting that "socialists and communists are unbelievers" and labelling Saddam an apostate of Islam, an infidel. "A crusade concerns the Muslim nation, regardless of whether the socialist party and Saddam remain or go," the tape said.

Argues Peter Bergen, author of Holy War Inc: Inside the Secret World of Osama bin Laden: "Osama bin Laden is an Islamist zealot who despises secular fascists such as Saddam. I heard from Bin Laden himself that he is no fan of Saddam. When I met with the Saudi exile in Afghanistan five years ago, he volunteered that he thought the Iraqi dictator was a 'bad Muslim'. For Bin Laden, that's as bad as it gets."

For Al Qaeda, Saddam is irrelevant. Far from opposing the war, Osama appreciates it as a chance to humiliate the Americans on the battlefield, and as an opportunity to establish an Islamic regime in West Asia’s only secular island. So, in the hills and caves of the Zagros mountain on Iraq’s eastern borders, Al Qaeda guerrillas are waiting for Saddam’s secular army to be eliminated by General Tommy Franks’ brigades. They are in no hurry. Once the allied forces prepare the ground for a fundamentalist resurgence, Osama’s gang will descend to strike in the name of revolutionary Islam.

Meanwhile, Bush can feel smug about Iraqi freedom.