Nobody knows how the unprecedented saffron surge will influence results in Bengal's four-corner battle. For now though, it gives the Left hope and the Trinamool some serious worry.
The Economic Times, 4 May, 2014
The evening before the seventh phase of polling on April 30, BJP candidate from Hooghly Chandan Mitra is scowling. "It's less than 12 hours to the poll and look at the organisational mess," he growls at his ancestral riverfront residence at Chinsura, 60 km from Kolkata. It has been a long day for the Delhi-based journalist and a two-time Rajya Sabha member..
In the morning, Trinamool Congress workers surrounded his car outside the local railway station and alleged that he was distributing money to lure voters. And now Mitra is being barraged with complaints from frustrated polling agents that party flags are in short supply. "Calm down and stop calling me," he shots back over phone, "what can the candidate do if those in charge of supplying polling booth material are not around?"
Did the party not anticipate such enthusiasm from the workers and voters in Bengal? In an instant, the frown disappears. "We couldn't have. Since I landed here in the second week of March, there has been a sea change in the public mood," Mitra smiles. "The people of Bengal have had enough of the TMC and the Left. They are rallying around Narendra Modi. The results will surprise everyone."
Surprise. That has been the promise of the BJP leadership in Bengal since polls began in April. In the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, the party's vote share shrank to a mere 6%. This time, the state leadership claims that the BJP will top its best show recorded during the peak of the Ram Janmabhoomi movement during 1991-92 when the party's vote share swelled to 12% and 16% in Lok Sabha and Panchayat polls, respectively.
In Bengal's tight four-corner fight this summer, nobody knows how many seats a vote share in excess of 16% may translate into. While the party's media posturing projects well over a dozen, its internal assessment keeps the ally at 3-6 seats. That itself will be a minor saffron coup in the land of Shyama Prasad Mukherjee -- the founder of the Bharatiya Jan Sangh to which the BJP traces its roots -- which never really warmed up to right-of-the-centre politics. After all, BJP’s best performance here so far has been winning two seats in alliance with the TMC in 1998.
That record would be bettered many times over, claims Mitra, if only the party could make the most of the Modi wave. "Wherever our organisation is strong, we will get good result." So it took a Narendra Modi for the BJP to finally breach Bengal? "Of course, Modi as our prime ministerial candidate has irresistible mass appeal," Mitra savours the reflected glory. "But this swing for the BJP is a combination of many positives. You don't judge a dish only by its dal or its tadka, do you?"
+++
Tapan Sikdar, two-time MP and a minister in the Atal Bihari Vajpayee cabinet, is not keeping well. But that has not dampened his campaign in Dum Dum constituency. Back in his tiny rented north Kolkata apartment from a morning rally, Sikdar says Bengal will again vote for poriborton (change) this time.
"The 2009 LS polls set the stage for 2011 (Assembly polls). We are going to witness a similar landslide verdict again. That poriborton was for Mamata in Bengal, this one is for Modi in Delhi," he thunders, still in rally mode. "In 2009, the TMC jumped from 1 to 19 MPs. In 2011, their previous tally of 29 MLAs multiplied to 229. Those who are dismissing us because of our 6% vote share in 2009 are in for a rude shock. Remember, we got 11% vote in Jangipur (LS) by-poll last year."
Modi factor apart, Sikdar says the Bengal voter is tired of the TMC and the Left. "Both were party to the UPA misrule at different times. Now (former CM) Buddhadeb (Bhattacharjee) has alienated a lot of Left voters by saying his party may consider supporting the Congress again. Under the Trinamool rule, gang rapes have become routine. There is no infrastructural growth. And corruption is everywhere."
Indeed, Trinamool is on the back foot in the Saradha ponzi scam as the Enforcement Directorate has turned on the heat after the Supreme Court’s intervention. Recent allegations by the CPI(M) that the chief minister's family members have invested several crores in real estate have only added to her discomfiture. Modi opened another front by questioning the Trinamool's dubious fund-raisers that sold Mamata's paintings at exorbitant prices.
But why did it take so long for Modi to challenge Mamata? On February 5, when the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate began his Bengal campaign at Kolkata maidan, he peddled the “double-laddoo” package of “Modi in Delhi & Mamata in Bengal”. The first onslaught came more than two months later on April 10 at a Siliguri rally. While Sikdar claims that Modi did not want to attack a former NDA ally without provocation, party insiders say that the central leadership's decision initially was to "keep the door open" to post-poll possibilities.
"But we soon realised that Mamata had gone too far down the Muslim line. The state leadership was always for a tough campaign against her misrule and policies of Muslim appeasement," says a senior BJP functionary. The lure of 27% Muslim vote is difficult to resist in Bengal and Mamata even declared a monthly honorarium of Rs 2,500 for Imams which was later stayed by Calcutta High Court.
"There is no communal polarisation in Bengal but such brazenness offends people. We are the only party talking about these myopic policies and the response has been very good," says Mitra. "A sizeable chunk of the TMC vote is shifting to the BJP. The floating voters, too. But the Left vote is already down to their cadres and may not go down any further,"
+++
Holed up in the only air-conditioned room in a bare apartment bustling with party workers gorging on "homemade lunch", professor Saugata Ray, former minister in the Manmohan Singh cabinet and Trinamool contestant from Dum Dum, points out the obvious irony in the hope of a Left revival riding the Modi wave.
"Yes, the BJP will get more votes this time and the Left is praying that they (the BJP) eat into our share and help them. Enemy's enemy, you know," he sounds exhausted in the sapping heat but commands enough sarcasm to carry on. "But Tapan Sikdar is not a factor in Dum Dum. He bagged around six lakh votes thanks to the Trinamool in 1998, 1999 and 2004. On his own, he managed only 55,000 last time (2009) and lost his deposit."
Even if there is a swing in favour of the BJP, claims Roy, the party does not have the organisational strength to transform that into votes and seats. "The BJP has fielded a few candidates of some eminence. But in Bengal, a party needs deep roots and the cadre base to man polling booths."
Confident about his party's prospects in 30-plus seats, Roy dismisses Modi's charges against Mamata and insists that the TMC "would never back the BJP and alienate its Muslim support". Is that why Mamata now targets the BJP more than she picks on the Left in her campaign? "You are wasting your time and mine," he refuses to "give anything more in the middle of an election".
Roy won't talk about it but Trinamool sources say Mamata is also wary of the growing factionalism in her party. In a number of recent rallies, she has been upset at the low turnout. She has sidelined a section of the emerging leadership, choosing to field a number of political novices instead. She must get her bunch of actors and singers elected to remain the only power centre of the the Trinamool.
"It was a big gamble and made her task doubly difficult in the face of a Modi wave and a tough (Election) Commission," says a Congress worker who was with the Trinamool during 2012-13. "But her boys managed to put the (booth management) machinery in action on the 30th (April). If they can do a 30th on the 7th and the 12th as well, she won't have to worry."
+++
At Kolkata's Nagerbazar CPI(M) zonal party office, the mood is sombre on 30 April afternoon. "We had high hopes from the EC but their officers proved to be toothless. How can they say what happens outside the booth is not the EC's business? How will people vote if they are intimidated?" the veteran zonal secretary sounds helpless as we wait for Dr Asim Dasgupta, former finance minister and one of the party's star candidates.
With Dasgupta on an open jeep, the rally moved slowly along serpentine lanes for over an hour. He is happy with the people's response but the news of "organised rigging" worries him. "Our boys are not lumpen," he says. "It is not easy for us to fight muscle power." But didn't the CPI(M) pull off the very same hooliganism in the infamous 2004 Lok Sabha polls? "I have won five elections and never once have I entertained such practices," he ducks the question.
The prospect of the BJP doing well, he agrees, would help the Left Front. "Our secular vote base can't be lured so easily. If others lose vote to the BJP, it will help us. We are against Modi but we have no control over arithmetic," Dasgupta says. The vote share of the Left (43.3%) and the TMC alliance (44.6%) almost evened out in 2009. In 2011, the Left slid to 41% while the TMC alliance climbed to 48.5%.
After the Congress and the Trinamool parted ways, a four-corner contest in 2013 panchayat polls saw the TMC bagging 44% votes while the Left, the Congress and the BJP got 38%, 9% and 3%, respectively. Every percentage point jump in the BJP's vote share can upset the TMC's fortunes if Modi gains mostly at Mamata's cost.
Sikdar says the decision to go with the Trinamool in Bengal during the NDA years was a mistake. "Everywhere we have gone with a regional force, it has gained at our expense. Look at Mayawati in Uttar Pradesh or Naveen Patnaik in Odisha. But the BJP's time has finally come in Bengal and Mamata should watch out for us in 2016 (assembly polls)," claims Mitra.
As for 2014, Mamata's dream of emerging as the leader of the third largest party in the Lok Sabha seems as abstract as her best works. "Our 2009 tally of 19 MPs will definitely improve but may stop short of 25," says a candid TMC leader who won't be named. "The Left may reach within a couple of seats of their (2009 tally of) 15. Now if the BJP really wins a few seats, the Congress will struggle to retain even half of their six seats. It is too fluid to call accurately this time and most winning margins will be in few thousands."
Unless, of course, the Trinamool succeeds in doing a Left a la 2004.
The Economic Times, 4 May, 2014
In the morning, Trinamool Congress workers surrounded his car outside the local railway station and alleged that he was distributing money to lure voters. And now Mitra is being barraged with complaints from frustrated polling agents that party flags are in short supply. "Calm down and stop calling me," he shots back over phone, "what can the candidate do if those in charge of supplying polling booth material are not around?"
Did the party not anticipate such enthusiasm from the workers and voters in Bengal? In an instant, the frown disappears. "We couldn't have. Since I landed here in the second week of March, there has been a sea change in the public mood," Mitra smiles. "The people of Bengal have had enough of the TMC and the Left. They are rallying around Narendra Modi. The results will surprise everyone."
Surprise. That has been the promise of the BJP leadership in Bengal since polls began in April. In the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, the party's vote share shrank to a mere 6%. This time, the state leadership claims that the BJP will top its best show recorded during the peak of the Ram Janmabhoomi movement during 1991-92 when the party's vote share swelled to 12% and 16% in Lok Sabha and Panchayat polls, respectively.
In Bengal's tight four-corner fight this summer, nobody knows how many seats a vote share in excess of 16% may translate into. While the party's media posturing projects well over a dozen, its internal assessment keeps the ally at 3-6 seats. That itself will be a minor saffron coup in the land of Shyama Prasad Mukherjee -- the founder of the Bharatiya Jan Sangh to which the BJP traces its roots -- which never really warmed up to right-of-the-centre politics. After all, BJP’s best performance here so far has been winning two seats in alliance with the TMC in 1998.
That record would be bettered many times over, claims Mitra, if only the party could make the most of the Modi wave. "Wherever our organisation is strong, we will get good result." So it took a Narendra Modi for the BJP to finally breach Bengal? "Of course, Modi as our prime ministerial candidate has irresistible mass appeal," Mitra savours the reflected glory. "But this swing for the BJP is a combination of many positives. You don't judge a dish only by its dal or its tadka, do you?"
+++
Tapan Sikdar, two-time MP and a minister in the Atal Bihari Vajpayee cabinet, is not keeping well. But that has not dampened his campaign in Dum Dum constituency. Back in his tiny rented north Kolkata apartment from a morning rally, Sikdar says Bengal will again vote for poriborton (change) this time.
"The 2009 LS polls set the stage for 2011 (Assembly polls). We are going to witness a similar landslide verdict again. That poriborton was for Mamata in Bengal, this one is for Modi in Delhi," he thunders, still in rally mode. "In 2009, the TMC jumped from 1 to 19 MPs. In 2011, their previous tally of 29 MLAs multiplied to 229. Those who are dismissing us because of our 6% vote share in 2009 are in for a rude shock. Remember, we got 11% vote in Jangipur (LS) by-poll last year."
Modi factor apart, Sikdar says the Bengal voter is tired of the TMC and the Left. "Both were party to the UPA misrule at different times. Now (former CM) Buddhadeb (Bhattacharjee) has alienated a lot of Left voters by saying his party may consider supporting the Congress again. Under the Trinamool rule, gang rapes have become routine. There is no infrastructural growth. And corruption is everywhere."
Indeed, Trinamool is on the back foot in the Saradha ponzi scam as the Enforcement Directorate has turned on the heat after the Supreme Court’s intervention. Recent allegations by the CPI(M) that the chief minister's family members have invested several crores in real estate have only added to her discomfiture. Modi opened another front by questioning the Trinamool's dubious fund-raisers that sold Mamata's paintings at exorbitant prices.
But why did it take so long for Modi to challenge Mamata? On February 5, when the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate began his Bengal campaign at Kolkata maidan, he peddled the “double-laddoo” package of “Modi in Delhi & Mamata in Bengal”. The first onslaught came more than two months later on April 10 at a Siliguri rally. While Sikdar claims that Modi did not want to attack a former NDA ally without provocation, party insiders say that the central leadership's decision initially was to "keep the door open" to post-poll possibilities.
"But we soon realised that Mamata had gone too far down the Muslim line. The state leadership was always for a tough campaign against her misrule and policies of Muslim appeasement," says a senior BJP functionary. The lure of 27% Muslim vote is difficult to resist in Bengal and Mamata even declared a monthly honorarium of Rs 2,500 for Imams which was later stayed by Calcutta High Court.
"There is no communal polarisation in Bengal but such brazenness offends people. We are the only party talking about these myopic policies and the response has been very good," says Mitra. "A sizeable chunk of the TMC vote is shifting to the BJP. The floating voters, too. But the Left vote is already down to their cadres and may not go down any further,"
+++
Holed up in the only air-conditioned room in a bare apartment bustling with party workers gorging on "homemade lunch", professor Saugata Ray, former minister in the Manmohan Singh cabinet and Trinamool contestant from Dum Dum, points out the obvious irony in the hope of a Left revival riding the Modi wave.
"Yes, the BJP will get more votes this time and the Left is praying that they (the BJP) eat into our share and help them. Enemy's enemy, you know," he sounds exhausted in the sapping heat but commands enough sarcasm to carry on. "But Tapan Sikdar is not a factor in Dum Dum. He bagged around six lakh votes thanks to the Trinamool in 1998, 1999 and 2004. On his own, he managed only 55,000 last time (2009) and lost his deposit."
Even if there is a swing in favour of the BJP, claims Roy, the party does not have the organisational strength to transform that into votes and seats. "The BJP has fielded a few candidates of some eminence. But in Bengal, a party needs deep roots and the cadre base to man polling booths."
Confident about his party's prospects in 30-plus seats, Roy dismisses Modi's charges against Mamata and insists that the TMC "would never back the BJP and alienate its Muslim support". Is that why Mamata now targets the BJP more than she picks on the Left in her campaign? "You are wasting your time and mine," he refuses to "give anything more in the middle of an election".
Roy won't talk about it but Trinamool sources say Mamata is also wary of the growing factionalism in her party. In a number of recent rallies, she has been upset at the low turnout. She has sidelined a section of the emerging leadership, choosing to field a number of political novices instead. She must get her bunch of actors and singers elected to remain the only power centre of the the Trinamool.
"It was a big gamble and made her task doubly difficult in the face of a Modi wave and a tough (Election) Commission," says a Congress worker who was with the Trinamool during 2012-13. "But her boys managed to put the (booth management) machinery in action on the 30th (April). If they can do a 30th on the 7th and the 12th as well, she won't have to worry."
+++
At Kolkata's Nagerbazar CPI(M) zonal party office, the mood is sombre on 30 April afternoon. "We had high hopes from the EC but their officers proved to be toothless. How can they say what happens outside the booth is not the EC's business? How will people vote if they are intimidated?" the veteran zonal secretary sounds helpless as we wait for Dr Asim Dasgupta, former finance minister and one of the party's star candidates.
With Dasgupta on an open jeep, the rally moved slowly along serpentine lanes for over an hour. He is happy with the people's response but the news of "organised rigging" worries him. "Our boys are not lumpen," he says. "It is not easy for us to fight muscle power." But didn't the CPI(M) pull off the very same hooliganism in the infamous 2004 Lok Sabha polls? "I have won five elections and never once have I entertained such practices," he ducks the question.
The prospect of the BJP doing well, he agrees, would help the Left Front. "Our secular vote base can't be lured so easily. If others lose vote to the BJP, it will help us. We are against Modi but we have no control over arithmetic," Dasgupta says. The vote share of the Left (43.3%) and the TMC alliance (44.6%) almost evened out in 2009. In 2011, the Left slid to 41% while the TMC alliance climbed to 48.5%.
After the Congress and the Trinamool parted ways, a four-corner contest in 2013 panchayat polls saw the TMC bagging 44% votes while the Left, the Congress and the BJP got 38%, 9% and 3%, respectively. Every percentage point jump in the BJP's vote share can upset the TMC's fortunes if Modi gains mostly at Mamata's cost.
Sikdar says the decision to go with the Trinamool in Bengal during the NDA years was a mistake. "Everywhere we have gone with a regional force, it has gained at our expense. Look at Mayawati in Uttar Pradesh or Naveen Patnaik in Odisha. But the BJP's time has finally come in Bengal and Mamata should watch out for us in 2016 (assembly polls)," claims Mitra.
As for 2014, Mamata's dream of emerging as the leader of the third largest party in the Lok Sabha seems as abstract as her best works. "Our 2009 tally of 19 MPs will definitely improve but may stop short of 25," says a candid TMC leader who won't be named. "The Left may reach within a couple of seats of their (2009 tally of) 15. Now if the BJP really wins a few seats, the Congress will struggle to retain even half of their six seats. It is too fluid to call accurately this time and most winning margins will be in few thousands."
Unless, of course, the Trinamool succeeds in doing a Left a la 2004.
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