Why his party keeps silent even after Manmohan Singh names
Rahul Gandhi, and why the BJP has held back from anointing Narendra Modi even
as its cadres get restive
The Congress has no alternative. The Prime Minister’s two USPs have
been compromised. It’s quite some time since Dr Singh the reformist lost his
midas touch. Then the incorruptible Mr Clean bit the dust with investigations
in multiple scams finding their ways to the PMO. The party cannot fight a tough
election under a leader whose liabilities are no more limited to bouts of
suspicious silence and inaction (not to mention that torturous drone).
The only other eligible Congressman whom the first family could
have trusted has already been kicked upstairs to Rashtrapati Bhawan. No, Ahmad
Patel was never South Block material. P Chidambam did manage to upstage Pranab
Mukherjee to reclaim his preferred North Block office but that will remain his
biggest intra-party coup. Anyway, the first family is unlikely to trust a
Chettiar from the South after its experience with a certain Telegu Bramin.
Besides, any member of the UPA cabinet will carry the burden of the scam-raj
still unfolding.
That makes Rahul Gandhi the only PM candidate the Congress can
and must project, if only for the fact that he has not been part of this
scam-tainted, or any, government. In him, the party can hope to project an alternative
to the corrupt and failed leadership. No, the party cannot invent a new cabinet
and voters know that given another mandate, most of its dubious ministers will
return. Yet, projecting an untested (hence, baggage-free) leadership is the
party’s best, even if diversionary, strategy under the circumstances.
The BJP has no alternative either. Not a single national leader in
the party generates much hope. LK Advani has tripped twice: first as the
‘ironman’ in 2004, after prevailing upon Vajpayee in 2002 to abandon his
rajdharma; then on his own in 2009 after failing to do a Vajpayee with his
Jinnah comment in 2005. Even the fast-receding ranks of his loyalists do not
expect him to pack enough punch to get third-time lucky.
None of the party’s other national leaders enjoys a truly
national profile; certainly not outside news TV studios. Barring Narendra Modi,
none of its chief ministers is articulate or charismatic enough to sell
themselves beyond their states. That makes Modi, the party’s most recognizable
face today, the obvious PM candidate. He has successfully fought three
elections as chief minister and projected himself as the vikas purush. He is
the only leader who, his party workers believe, can swing a general election.
Yet, while individual leaders are leaving little to conjecture,
both Congress and BJP have tiptoed around formally naming their PM
candidates. Not without reasons.
Rahul Gandhi is untested and baggage-free only as far as governance
is concerned. He has led the party’s state election campaigns in the past. His Mission
UP increased the Congress vote share but achieved nothing to back the ‘miracle
man’ image pumped up so assiduously under his party’s Mission Rahul.
Consequently, the party projected him as a man not in a hurry and on a learning
curve to deflect criticism from the tired symbolism of his politics and
speeches.
While the return of a Gandhi after two decades may appeal to
certain segments of the electorate, another sizeable segment of it is already
suspicious of his credentials, abilities and motive. After claiming repeatedly
that he would first take up a ministerial position to prepare himself for the
big job, Rahul will struggle to explain what, if not desperation, suddenly made
him take the plunge. His appeal to young voters is also suspect. Within the
party, his youth brigade is a collection of scions of other political dynasties
and a few first-generation sycophants whose bright ideas include a proposal to
gag the press.
Moreover, the Congress risks further alienating the pro-reform
youth, middle class and industries – already a strong Modi constituency – by projecting
Rahul as its PM candidate. For some time now, the party’s two-pronged policy –
the pro-poor initiatives, such as the tribal rights, food and land Acts, of
Sonia and her NAC; and the thrust on big ticket reforms by Team Manmohan
(Chidambaram, Montek, Kamal Nath etc) – catered to two opposite spectrums of
the electorate. By making headlines with Odisha tribals, UP farmers or Vidarbha
widows, Rahul has positioned himself closer to Sonia. He cannot reinvent
himself overnight as a champion of reforms to calm frayed nerves.
The BJP, on the other hand, is very much aware of the divisive
powers of Brand Modi. With him as the official PM candidate, the party knows it
will have to sacrifice minority votes. That is why party units in Madhya
Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan are apparently pleading with the central
leadership to avoid formally naming Modi as the PM candidate till the November-December
Assembly elections get over.
Ultimately, the success of the BJP in 2014 will depend on Modi’s
ability to garner enough majority votes for the party to offset the impact of
minority votes gravitating to its opponents. But unless it emerges as the
single largest party with at least 220 seats, the BJP may struggle to find
allies necessary to back Modi for the prime ministership. On the other hand,
without a pre-designated candidate, the BJP may attract enough allies with even
180 seats if now-secular-in-comparison Advani is propped up as the PM candidate
after the poll.
But can the BJP expect to bag even 180 seats without Narendra
Modi as its official mascot? Can the Congress afford to face the electorate
without changing its scam-tainted face, even if it has only Rahul Gandhi to draft
in? Neither of the parties may eventually benefit but they don’t seem to have
an alternative.
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