Only a spectacular show by Behenji in UP can stop Modi's march to power and open a window for a third front government. But if her BSP emerges as the third largest party, her justified claim to prime ministership may upset the front's number game.
FirstPost, 15 March, 2014
If J Jayalalithaa emerges as the non-Congress-non-BJP prime ministerial candidate, none of these parties except the DMK will have any major issues joining the government or supporting it from outside. In such a scenario, the numbers add up quickly. Between them, Jayalalithaa, Mayawati and Mamata are expected to win at least 90 seats. Add 15 each from LF, SP and JD(U); another 35 between BJD, TDP and NCP. That makes it 170. Jaya can count on smaller players such as Lalu Yadav, Farooq Abdullah, Jagan Reddy, Ajit Singh or Deve Gowda for at least another 10 MPs.
However, a number of these parties — for example, NCP, BJD, TMC and Jaya herself — may flock to the BJP if the party touches the 180-mark. In fact, the question of a third front government arises only if the BJP stops well short of that magic figure. Why 180? Because that takes the likely NDA (Shiv Sena and SAD) tally close to 200. Add TMC, AIADMK, BJD and NCP — it’s well past the 272-mark.
Barring a Congress miracle, the biggest obstacle to the BJP's 180-seat run is Mayawati. Because, considering the party needs to add 70 seats to its 2009 tally, Uttar Pradesh is where Narendra Modi will be fighting his most crucial battle.
Of the states under a so-called BJP swing, the party can gain substantially only in Rajasthan where it won just 4 out of 25 seats last time. But there is no room for significant gain from Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat and Himachal where the party won 44 out of 70 seats in 2009. Altogether, these five states may account for no more than 25 extra seats.
The BJP will also gain in Uttarakhand, Punjab and Delhi. But these small gains are likely to be offset, more or less, by a loss in Karnataka. The Modi wave is likely to earn a few extra seats in Odisha and Maharashtra. In the best case scenario for the party, it will have to depend on Bihar and UP for at least 35 of the additional 70 seats it needs.
Even if BJP wins half the seats in Bihar, its 2009 tally of 12 will improve only by 8 seats. That leaves Uttar Pradesh where the party must add 25-30 seats to its 2009 tally of 10. Between them, a cornered Samajwadi Party and a waning Congress will still take away at least 20 out of the 80 UP seats. But the real fight here is between the BJP and the BSP. After the riots, the Jats have apparently abandoned Ajit Singh for the BJP. But Mayawati's gain is bigger because the Muslim voter is disillusioned with the SP and unlikely to bank on a weak Congress.
If the Dalit-Muslim vote helps Mayawati bag at least 35 seats, the BJP will have to settle for less than 25. If BSP insiders are to be believed, Behenji is eyeing a 40-plus tally. Such a show by the BSP may limit the BJP's national count to 160, and throw the gates open to the possibilities of a third front government.
As the leader of the third largest party, Mayawati is likely to demand prime ministership for herself rather than back Jayalalithaa. Besides, neither Jaya or Mamata can claim the moral high of reining in the BJP even if they sweep their respective states. Bengal and Tamil Nadu do not figure in the BJP's scheme of things and the party can reach the 180-mark without a single MP from these two states. The real battle isMayawati's and it will be difficult to deny her the spoils if she succeeds.
But of course, Mayawati's prime ministership may upset the numbers game that looks so positive for Jaya. Since Mulayam Singh cannot back his arch rival -- and since the support from a depleted DMK cannot compensate for SP's at least 15 MPs -- Mayawati's third front may fall short of the 180-mark by 10-15 MPs. It won't matter if the Congress goes well beyond 100 seats and compensates for a weaker third front. Or if Mayawati really brings 40-plus MPs herself. But these appear distant possibilities.
As it stands now, Mayawati is the third front's only bet to bring it into the reckoning by stalling Modi. But if she succeeds and demands her rewards, the front may never add up.
FirstPost, 15 March, 2014
On paper, the chances of a non-Congress-non-BJP government at the Centre look bright this summer. Between them, the Congress and the BJP together bagged 322 seats in 2009. This time, the big two may not take home even 280. That leaves out nearly as many in a 542-seat contest. And since any third formation is likely to get the support of 100-odd Congress MPs, we are actually talking about an 180-seat strong front. Surely, out of 260-odd non-Congress-non-BJP MPs, at least two-thirds can come together in an alliance.
If only politics followed such simple arithmetic. Look at the 2009 Lok Sabha. Barring two Left outfits, there are five parties with two seats each, 12 parties with a single MP each and seven independents. No stable government can be formed with long-term dependence on them. That leaves out 30-odd MPs from the calculations. Take out the sworn allies of the NDA and what remains of the UPA. And what we are really left with are parties such as the AIADMK, DMK, Left Front, TMC, SP, BSP, JD(U), TDP, BJD and NCP.
However, a number of these parties — for example, NCP, BJD, TMC and Jaya herself — may flock to the BJP if the party touches the 180-mark. In fact, the question of a third front government arises only if the BJP stops well short of that magic figure. Why 180? Because that takes the likely NDA (Shiv Sena and SAD) tally close to 200. Add TMC, AIADMK, BJD and NCP — it’s well past the 272-mark.
Barring a Congress miracle, the biggest obstacle to the BJP's 180-seat run is Mayawati. Because, considering the party needs to add 70 seats to its 2009 tally, Uttar Pradesh is where Narendra Modi will be fighting his most crucial battle.
Of the states under a so-called BJP swing, the party can gain substantially only in Rajasthan where it won just 4 out of 25 seats last time. But there is no room for significant gain from Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat and Himachal where the party won 44 out of 70 seats in 2009. Altogether, these five states may account for no more than 25 extra seats.
The BJP will also gain in Uttarakhand, Punjab and Delhi. But these small gains are likely to be offset, more or less, by a loss in Karnataka. The Modi wave is likely to earn a few extra seats in Odisha and Maharashtra. In the best case scenario for the party, it will have to depend on Bihar and UP for at least 35 of the additional 70 seats it needs.
Even if BJP wins half the seats in Bihar, its 2009 tally of 12 will improve only by 8 seats. That leaves Uttar Pradesh where the party must add 25-30 seats to its 2009 tally of 10. Between them, a cornered Samajwadi Party and a waning Congress will still take away at least 20 out of the 80 UP seats. But the real fight here is between the BJP and the BSP. After the riots, the Jats have apparently abandoned Ajit Singh for the BJP. But Mayawati's gain is bigger because the Muslim voter is disillusioned with the SP and unlikely to bank on a weak Congress.
If the Dalit-Muslim vote helps Mayawati bag at least 35 seats, the BJP will have to settle for less than 25. If BSP insiders are to be believed, Behenji is eyeing a 40-plus tally. Such a show by the BSP may limit the BJP's national count to 160, and throw the gates open to the possibilities of a third front government.
As the leader of the third largest party, Mayawati is likely to demand prime ministership for herself rather than back Jayalalithaa. Besides, neither Jaya or Mamata can claim the moral high of reining in the BJP even if they sweep their respective states. Bengal and Tamil Nadu do not figure in the BJP's scheme of things and the party can reach the 180-mark without a single MP from these two states. The real battle isMayawati's and it will be difficult to deny her the spoils if she succeeds.
But of course, Mayawati's prime ministership may upset the numbers game that looks so positive for Jaya. Since Mulayam Singh cannot back his arch rival -- and since the support from a depleted DMK cannot compensate for SP's at least 15 MPs -- Mayawati's third front may fall short of the 180-mark by 10-15 MPs. It won't matter if the Congress goes well beyond 100 seats and compensates for a weaker third front. Or if Mayawati really brings 40-plus MPs herself. But these appear distant possibilities.
As it stands now, Mayawati is the third front's only bet to bring it into the reckoning by stalling Modi. But if she succeeds and demands her rewards, the front may never add up.
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