Can the Modi sarkar chart a green road to growth?

Striking a balance between growth imperatives and green concerns is not impossible. It requires sincerity in politics, economy and science. The key challenges before the Modi sarkar.

FirstPost, 31 May, 2014

While BJP’s prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi was making India dream of the Chinese rate of growth at his rallies in the four assembly poll-bound states, Reuters reported something unusual last November. Dropping the pursuit of growth-at-all-costs, the ruling Communist Party of China said it would put more emphasis on environmental protection when assessing officials, and would also hold local authorities directly responsible for pollution.

China had already launched Operation Green Fence, a campaign against the import of waste from the West. This April, as India voted Modi to power ostensibly to unleash growth, China amended its green law to make, reported Xinhua, “environmental protection the country’s basic policy”. Under the new law, officials would be judged by both growth and green targets, environmental impact of projects would be made public, NGOs would have the right to sue, and offenders would face strict penalties and jail terms.

Two decades of blinkered double-digit growth has made China an environmental disaster and necessitated such desperate efforts at recovery. Many fear it is probably too late for the Asian giant to pull back but the scale of Chinese operations are known to throw up surprises. In any case, there is an obvious lesson in the Chinese experience for India’s new government keen to emulate and overshadow the big neighbour’s growth story while facing the same environmental challenges.

In its first week, the Modi sarkar is considering green clearances for “28 standard projects” worth R 80,000 crore. In his first meeting with ministry officials on Thursday, Environment minister Prakash Javadekar was advised to open up dense forests for mining and allow new factories in heavily polluted industrial red zones. While a section of the bureaucracy is always more loyal than the king, Javadekar is yet to take a call. So far, he has been consistent before the media that his agenda is sustainable growth.

If the new government really means business, it won’t have to look far for an immediately actionable agenda. Typically, forest and wildlife clearances have been more contentious than environmental clearances because these hinge on the quality of forests and the presence of wildlife on project sites. Therefore, it is necessary to have an objective picture of the ground condition. For that, the new government must implement the excellent report of the T Chatterjee committee submitted last year.

The panel recommended a set of scientific criteria for demarcating India’s best forest areas as out of bounds for invasive projects such as mining. On the no-go list were protected areas (PA) and a one-kilometre-ring around PAs; compact patches of very dense forests; last remnants of forest types found in less than 50 sq km area across the country; areas located in direct draining catchment of important perennial streams that serve as water sources or feed hydropower projects; and areas within 250 m of perennial rivers and important wetlands.

Other forested areas, the report proposed, would be scored on a scale of 100 against six measurable parameters — forest type, biological richness, wildlife value, forest cover, landscape integrity and hydrological value — and an area with a score of 70 or above will be considered out of bounds. The government can debate and fine-tune these parameters, rate forest areas on a national grid of 1km x 1km units, and bar mining if inviolate units occupy more than half of a proposed mining area. The same national grid can also be used to speed up forest clearances for other projects.

Similarly, it is important to scientifically assess and map the cumulative project carrying capacity of each river that has potential for hydro-electricity before arbitrarily deciding on individual dams. To determine wildlife presence in an area, the taluka-level report of the National Tiger Conservation Authority and a national report on elephant corridors by the Wildlife Trust of India can provide the foundation that will have to be expanded by mapping the entire country and taking all critical species into account.

The other key reform necessary to cut unnecessary delay is to make the project proponents accountable. There should be strict punishment, ideally long-term blacklisting of companies and conviction of nodal officers, for any mala fide claim in project applications or violation of clearance conditions. To ensure that transparency, the new government can institutionalize independent audits by NGOs, academic institutions and civil society groups without requiring state sanction. Successive UPA regimes made the clearance process suitably unwieldy and undermined both green and growth interests. If the new government really wants to play fair, it can make decision-making transparent, simple and swift.

Clearances apart, the new government must take quick decisions on a range of environmental issues. Each of these would entail a full-fledged discussion but here’s a quick look at the key opportunities:

Surface and groundwater security
Much as Modi cherishes AB Vajpayee’s legacy, his government will do the country a big favour by scrapping the river-linking project. Enough has been argued against this ecologically and economically disastrous idea. Modi’s technocrats have the choice of heeding a former water resources secretary or the popular press.

India’s fast-depleting aquifers pose a grave and imminent water crisis. The new government must make rainwater harvesting mandatory for all buildings in cities, ban flood irrigation and promote sprinklers. It should also set out exemplary punishment for the construction mafia for extracting groundwater or encroaching upon water bodies as real estate.

Cleaning up Ganga (and other rivers)
Going by the Sabarmati experience, Varanasi may soon have concretized facades along its riverfront. But instead of such cosmetic efforts, what India’s rivers need is a complete ban on disposal of untreated sewage and industrial effluent. To begin with, the new government can identify, say 20 cities and towns, big and small, and set up treatment plants to unburden a few rivers. Why not start with the Yamuna and Sabarmati, along with the upper stretch of the Ganga?

Pollution -- air, water and soil
India’s big metros need an immediate and steep congestion tax on cars. And use of chemical pesticide and fertilizers and discharges from polluting industries need to be curbed with much stricter regulatory laws. Maybe, a pilot project based on zero-tolerance can kick off somewhere in the Vapi-Mehasana corridor.

Forest and wildlife conservation
If he is keen on one big thing, the new Prime Minister can implement the Western Ghat report stalled by former environment minister Veerappa Moily at the behest of Manmohan Singh.

Among others, Modi can use his numerical strength to legislate a minimum width for eco-sensitive zones – a protective ring around national parks and sanctuaries under the Environmental Protection Act, 1986. In 2006, the Supreme Court had ruled in favour of 10-km-wide ESZs, unless the Centre and the state notified a different boundary based on scientific site-specific assessment. Since any project within that ring requires mandatory prior clearance from the National Board for Wildlife, states have been declaring ESZs no more than a few metres wide. Sikkim is a case in point where 25-metre-wide ESZs were notified this year to allow a string of hydel projects.

The new government should junk the policy of setting absurd targets of aforestation that usually drive forest departments to remove old root stocks in degraded forest patches to make room for planting exotic saplings. Instead, Javadekar needs to seek the Supreme Court’s nod for diverting the CAMPA funds to Integrated Development of Wildlife Habitats (IDWH), a scheme aimed at the recovery of 15 key species including those found mostly outside protected forests, such as the critically-endangered snow leopard, great Indian bustard and vulture.

Climate change
While fighting the unequal world order at global forums and demanding the cost of sacrificing growth to atone for the developed world, Javadekar should remember how that picture of inequality plays out at home. The poor tribal and other forest communities who have not destroyed their forests must be compensated – doubly if their land is acquired after settlement of rights for development. Such a just policy at home will earn the new government immense goodwill and bargaining power abroad.

Coronation over, the CEO checks in

Undisputed leader, instinctive statesman, authoritarian, micro-manager. Lutyens’ Delhi is just figuring out the outsider from Ahmedabad as he sets his house rapidly in order. With a ministry ready to do his bidding and a crack team in the making, can this one-man Gujarati enterprise deliver a vibrant India model?

Tehelka, 31 May, 2014

The Met Office predicted a dust storm and thundershowers in the capital on 26 May. But only after 8 pm, the forecast said. Halfway through the oathtaking ceremony at Rashtrapati Bhavan, the heat got to Jammu & Kashmir Chief Minister Omar Abdullah. Last week, he anxiously tweeted about not being invited to the Narendra Modi show. On the muggy Monday evening, he wished for winter elections so that such open-air gala could be more tolerable, only to be snubbed by Kiran Bedi that the weather was pretty pleasant in Delhi, thank you.
Not everyone rattled out the oath as swiftly as Sushma Swaraj, who appeared to know it by heart. So, the president decided to speed things up by asking his secretary Omita Paul not to wait for every minister to finish signing the registers before calling the next one to take oath. “You announce. They will take time,” he prompted. It helped. The ceremony was over by 7.30 pm, well within the Met deadline. But the elements held even afterwards.
Every now and then, chants of “Jai Sri Ram” broke the protocol. For a change, superstars and celebrities were ushered to the back rows. A restless Salman Khan decided to put on his shades. Sunil Gavaskar stared motionless. Smriti Irani flaunted gorgeous lotus prints on her saree. Sadhvi Ritambhara kept smiling to herself and sang along as the brass band played the national anthem. The two Ambanis kept their distance. And Rahul Gandhi was estranged from his mother who sat next to former president Pratibha Patil in the front row.
By the time all 46 ministers took oath in the name of god, with 3,000 guests in attendance and millions watching live on television, the Indian polity had taken a pivotal turn. In his stately avatar, the new prime minister decided to swap his trademark Modi kurta for a more dapper affair. But that was a minor recalibration, given his masterstrokes of moves to pull off a grand coronation ceremony, with the attendance of SAARC neighbours — a celebration of democracy if you will — to appoint a matter-of-fact Cabinet that bore his signature all the way.
Through the election campaign, Modi the contender single-handedly changed the tenor of Indian politics. Now, it was the turn of Modi the prime minister to redefine governance.
Surprise or Not
Nobody expected Modi to invite SAARC leaders, least of all Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, to his oath-taking ceremony. Only last year, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh turned down Sharif’s invitation to attend his swearing-in in Islamabad. The year before that, Singh drew flak from the BJP for extending so much as a lunch invitation to outgoing Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari who was in India to visit Ajmer Sharif. The feelings of the Sangh, the Sena and the hardliners in the BJP have not changed since. But Modi made it clear he would be his own man.
Convergence (from left) Piyush Goyal, Nitin Gadkari and Prakash Javadekar will be in charge of multiple departments
Convergence (from left) Piyush Goyal, Nitin Gadkari and Prakash Javadekar will be in charge of multiple departments
Disregarding opposition from friend J Jayalalithaa’s AIADMK and ally MDMK to inviting Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapaksa, and the saffron resistance to hosting Sharif, Modi flaunted his numerical strength in Parliament to bring the entire SAARC leadership together in New Delhi at less than a week’s notice. Travelling abroad, Sheikh Hasina could not make it but sent the Speaker of the Bangladesh Parliament. Modi has promised to visit Dhaka soon and it looks like Mamata Banerjee can no longer veto a Teesta water-sharing treaty.
If Modi’s ingenious diplomatic coup of sorts surprised many, there was more in store for the BJP’s three allies. Irrespective of the size of their parliamentary parties, the TDP, Shiv Sena and the LJP got one berth each. If such token representation was not enough, Modi irked Sena’s Anant Geete with the “unimportant portfolio” of heavy industries. It is likely that both the TDP and the Sena will get at least one berth each when Modi expands his Cabinet during the Budget session but an immediate reshuffle to placate Geete may not be on the cards.
Modi also surprised many in his own party by ignoring a few states where the BJP trounced its opponents in the recent polls. Rajasthan staged a clean sweep of 25 seats but got only one minister in Nihal Chand. Similarly, Jharkhand, Odisha, Assam and Arunachal Pradesh found one berth each, while a resurgent Bengal BJP went unrewarded. Unmistakably, Modi favoured key states that are heading for Assembly polls. Six ministers were picked from Maharashtra due for polls later this year. Next in line Bihar (2015) got five ministers and the lion’s share of nine went to the all-important Uttar Pradesh (2017).
However, Modi’s choice of ministers was not unexpected. He did not want the old guard cramming his style. So, customary visits and placatory calls made, he gently did away with the dilemma of having to “find slots” for an LK Advani and an MM Joshi. Not a coincidence that Advani smiled the broadest on Monday evening when he met the Congress president and Joshi did not bother to socialise at all.
Like he singled out Amit Shah as his most trusted colleague in Gujarat, Modi announced his confidence in Arun Jaitley by trusting the finance minister with the defence portfolio for the time being. While Rajnath Singh’s home portfolio makes him the No. 2 in the Cabinet, the formal hierarchy will become clear once Modi leaves on his first foreign tour.
From trust to loyalty, Modi handed out berths to keen backers who delivered the goods in his quest for 272-plus. If Najma Heptullah, former deputy chairperson of the Rajya Sabha and the only Muslim in the Modi Cabinet, got her due for ditching the Congress to join the BJP weeks after the party lost the 2004 Lok Sabha election, Piyush Goyal, Prakash Javadekar and Nirmala Sitharaman were rewarded for defending Modi on news channels night after night. Dharmendra Pradhan got his due for reaping a rich harvest of MPs in Bihar.
With his pick for the HRD ministry, Modi sent the right signals to the RSS. As the HRD minister in the Vajpayee government, Joshi reconstituted academic councils with saffron scholars and expunged books written by Left historians from the syllabi. The appointment of young Smriti Irani of Tulsi fame may allow enough room for more such manoeuving.
I, Narendra Damodardas Modi
With his ministers flanking him, Modi made it clear on the first day of office that he would be in charge of all important issues and the “most critical policy issues” would be decided by the PM and/or the FM.
That Modi the super-CM had arrived in Delhi was already evident in the selection of junior ministers for key economic ministries — Goyal (power and coal), Sitharaman (commerce), Pradhan (oil and gas) and Javadekar (environment) — that Modi the super-PM wants to run himself.
As expected, Modi clubbed certain complementary sectors under nodal ministers, evidently to streamline operations. Corporate affairs and finance went to Jaitley. External affairs and overseas Indian affairs were combined under Swaraj. Venkaiah Naidu took charge of urban development, housing and poverty alleviation. Gopinath Munde got rural development, Panchayati Raj and drinking water and sanitation. Road transport and highways and shipping (but not railways or even civil aviation) were brought together under Nitin Gadkari. Goyal got power, coal and renewable energy.
But other combinations, such as finance and defence or I&B and environment, defied logic. It is possible that, as Jaitley suggested on 27 May, Modi is still looking for a suitable defence minister. But it is inexplicable why the environment portfolio was not entrusted to either Sena’s Suresh Prabhu or the BJP’s Maneka Gandhi when both have the experience of handling the ministry under Vajpayee.
Perhaps, Modi wants to control these two ministries as well without being seen to be doing so. Inducting a full-time defence minister would have meant having another heavyweight (and another sceptic alongside Swaraj) in the Cabinet Committee on Security. With the trusted Jaitley in charge, Modi gets to run the MoD by proxy until he makes up his mind on a worthy incumbent.
The motives are clearer in the case of Paryavaran Bhavan. To attract investment, the industry is betting on Modi to expedite green clearances and push through pending projects worth $7 billion. To deliver, the new government will have to overcome a number of legal hurdles in the green ministry for which the PMO needs unhindered control.
In the run-up to the polls, Javadekar attacked the UPA in February for blocking growth and going back to the days of licence-permit raj by delaying green clearances, a charge Manmohan Singh himself laid against his own government. Soon after taking oath, the new green minister told ANI that “poverty is the biggest disaster” and “India needs a window for growth” because there is no contradiction between environmental protection and development.
The tribal affairs ministry, the other impediment to summary clearance of projects, has been assigned to Jual Oram, who served in the ministry (1999-2004) when it was created by the Vajpayee government. A leader of the tribal resistance against the proposed mining of Khandadhar hills by POSCO in his Sundergarh constituency, Oram was quoted as saying that mining should be allowed only when it was in the interest of the tribals. But it remains to be seen if such critical decisions remain his or shift to the PMO.
Less is More
Pushing “minimum government”, is Modi piling too much on his plate? Will the extent of much-promised maximum governance eventually depend on his ability to push himself to superhuman levels of stamina and efficiency? To Modi’s credit, he ran the state of Gujarat pretty much single-handedly. But India is not as homogenous or developed. Its size, diversity and challenge are likely to stretch even a workaholic like Modi and will require a range of inputs and approaches that may be beyond an over-centralised albeit super-efficient task force.
Of course, Modi was backed by a solid team of bureaucrats and technocrats in Gujarat and some of them will follow him to Delhi. Additionally, the new prime minister has been busy screening talent for his central crack team. No-nonsense Nripendra Misra and super sleuth Ajit Doval have already been singled out for the posts of principal secretary and national security adviser (NSA), respectively. In fact, Modi was closeted with both even before his swearing-in and Doval briefed him on the key issues for the meetings with SAARC leaders, including the most crucial one with Sharif.
A former chairman of the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India, Mishra is known in IAS circles for his work ethic and integrity. He will be Modi’s point person for key policy implementation. Doval is only the second NSA, after MK Narayanan, with an intelligence background as the rest of his predecessors were in the Foreign Service. He will be integral to Modi’s fight against both internal and external terrorism.
Two of Modi’s most trusted officers, Bharat Lal and Arvind K Sharma, have also been inducted in the PMO. Gujarat’s Resident Commissioner, Lal has been successfully liaisoning for Modi in Delhi’s power corridors for some time. Sharma, a 1988-batch IAS officer, apparently helped Modi project his business-friendly image, particularly through the Vibrant Gujarat summits, and also “handled” BJP MLAs in Gujarat.
Yet, it will not be easy for the talent-packed super-PMO to run the government and the country all on its own. As Modi eases into his new role, his challenge will be to open up and delegate decision-making powers to ministers other than a Jaitley or a Rajnath. Participatory governance will make his job easier and also prove those who have misgivings about his totalitarian tendencies wrong.
Some picked up the early signs as soon as the coronation was over. “No selfies on stage! Remarkable restraint,” tweeted junior Abdullah, with a smiley, moments after all the prime minister’s men and women lined up for a photo op at Rashtrapati Bhavan. Who would have thought Modi couldn’t be happy staying in the big picture while others clicked?

What does Modi’s New Cabinet Mean for India?

Narendra Modi has clearly used electoral considerations for the future rather than the past to pick his small team. But there might be some unexpected surprises lurking in his new cabinet choices, such as whether the RSS will be able to control the HRD ministry and if the PM will control the MoEF along with key economic ministries.

 
Even as it was flaunted and vilified in equal measure during the election campaign over the last few months, the Gujarat model of growth remained an abstraction that charmed many more than it repelled. This week, though, the imprint of the Gujarat model of governance became unmistakable on the selection of ministers for the Narendra Modi cabinet.
The former Gujarat chief minister ran the state more like a CEO from his super-CMO (chief minister’s office) that took pretty much every policy decision — ostensibly to cut through the usual maze of red tape — and entrusted the departments and the ministers only with the implementation. There is little room for doubt (lack of synergy) or disagreement (second power center) in this scheme of things.
While picking his men and women in Delhi, Modi’s boldest decision was to come clean. Having decided that the old guard had no role to play in his mode of governance, he did not succumb to the demands of a section of the Sangh Parivar or the political courtesy of accommodating them somewhere. Inducting a sulking LK Advani or a disgruntled MM Joshi in peripheral roles would have created internal tension in the government. By dropping them altogether, Modi saved himself and his rather young team the confusion.
If the former Gujarat CM relied mostly on an inimitable Amit Shah to run the state, Modi the prime minister has picked Arun Jaitley for that role in Delhi. As Home minister, Rajnath Singh is the de facto number two in the cabinet and the formal hierarchy will become clearer the day Modi leaves on his first foreign tour. But trusting the finance minister with the defence ministry for the time being, Modi has clearly established Jaitley’s unparalleled clout in the new government.
The path for the Gujarat model of centralization of governance was paved by appointing a bunch of juniors in charge of key ‘growth ministries’ so that Modi could have a free hand in running them and unleash the animal spirit of the economy. First timers such as Piyush Goyal (Power and Coal), Nirmala Sitharaman (Commerce), Dharmendra Pradhan (Oil and Gas) or Prakash Javadekar (Environment) will be happy to take orders and implement the decisions signed on by the super-PMO.
Similarly, Modi’s choice of Smriti Irani, one of the youngest Cabinet ministers ever, for the Human Resources Development Ministry probably testified as much to his affection for a staunch loyalist as to an accommodation of the RSS agenda. MM Joshi’s controversial tenure at the helm of the HRD Ministry, when he reconstituted academic councils and sought to rewrite history by scrapping books written by eminent Left historians, revealed how central the ministry was to the RSS’s ‘purification’ drive.
Not much has changed in the Sangh’s agenda in the decade since. The appointment of a first-timer – who Modi referred to as “Tulsi [after the popular character she played in a TV soap] mere angan ki” at an election rally in Amethi – as the HRD minister is likely to have the blessings of those keen to “correct” the cultural and civilizational foundation of the Indian nation.
Rewarding loyalty and performance remains a running theme in the Cabinet selections. Najma Heptullah, former deputy speaker of the Rajya Sabha and the lone Muslim in the cabinet, got her due for leaving the Congress for the BJP weeks after the party suffered an electoral setback in 2004. Sitharaman, Javadekar and Goyal were acknowledged for ably defending Modi on news channels. Young Dharmendra Pradhan was rewarded for the party’s stellar show in Bihar under his watch.
Caste, Religion, Region & Allies
Modi’s choices of ministers do not follow any regional or alliance lines, but he found place for only four from minority communities. They are Maneka Gandhi, Harsimrat Badal (both Sikh), Najma Heptulla (Muslim) and Kiren Rijiju (Buddhist). Smriti Irani is a Khatri married to a Parsi. Of the remaining 40 ministers, 21 are upper caste Hindus.
Modi picked seven Brahmins (Jaitley, Sushma Swaraj, Nitin Gadkari, Ananth Kumar, Kalraj Mishra, Javadekar and Sitharaman), four Rajputs (Rajnath Singh, Radha Mohan Singh, VK Singh and Jitendra Singh) and 11 from other forward castes (Venkaiah Naidu, Ravi Shankar Prasad, Harsh Vardhan, Gajapati Raju, Sadananda Gowda, Santosh Gangwar, Piyush Goyal, P Radhakrishnan, GM Siddeswara, Manoj Sinha and Raosaheb Danve).
Of the other half of the ministry, nine are from the Other Backward Castes (Gopinath Munde, Uma Bharti, Anant Geete, Narendra Singh Tomar, Rao Inderjit Singh, Shripad Naik, Dharmendra Pradhan, Upendra Kushwaha and Sanjeev Balyan), six from the Scheduled Tribes (Jual Oram, Sarbananda Sonowal, Mansukhbhai Vasava, Vishnu Dev Sai, Krishan Pal Gurjar and Sudarshan Bhagat) and three from the Scheduled Castes (Ram Vilas Paswan, Thawar Chand Gehlot and Nihal Chand).
A few states where the party did exceptionally well in the Lok Sabha polls fell off the radar. Rajasthan sent 25 MPs but only one minister, Nihal Chand, was picked from the state. Only three ministers came from the eastern states with Bengal drawing a blank. In fact, the focus has been on the states that are heading for Assembly polls. Maharashtra is due for polls later this year and got six ministers. Bihar (due in 2015) got five and the all-important Uttar Pradesh (due in 2017) nine ministers.
Irrespective of the number of MPs they brought to the House, the three BJP allies got only one minister each. Smug with his numerical security in Parliament, Modi offered his allies no more than token representation in the ministry. While both the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and Shiv Sena are likely to have another couple of berths when Modi expands his cabinet, he has kept it uncluttered for now.
For someone known for his 56-inch chest and hunkaar rallies, Modi escaped misogynic stereotyping by picking as many as seven women ministers, six of them in the cabinet. He also went for younger faces, with Irani being the youngest at 38. The only two septuagenarians in the mix are Heptulla (74) and Kalraj Mishra (72). The average age of the ministry led by the 63-year-old PM is only 57 years, with 16 ministers below 55. The average wealth of Modi’s ministers is in excess of Rs 13 crore each but only a few of them, such as Uma Bharti and Sanjeev Balyan (accused in the Muzaffarnagar riots), have criminal charges against them.
A Matter of Control
It was expected that Modi would club certain complimentary sectors and assign a single minister to each cluster. But certain combinations of portfolio are unusual.
Putting together External Affairs and Overseas Indian Affairs under Swaraj; Corporate Affairs and Finance under Jaitley; Urban Development, Housing and Poverty Alleviation under Naidu; Rural Development, Panchayati Raj and Drinking Water and Sanitation under Munde; Road Transport and Highways and Shipping under Gadkari; and Power, Coal and Renewable Energy under Goyal – these have a rationale. But what is the logic for dumping Defence on Finance Minister Jaitley or Environment and Forests on Information & Broadcasting Minister Javadekar?
In the former instances, over-centralization may cut both ways. While it will quicken decision-making, unified commands often miss the range of diverse inputs necessary in an economy of India’s size and complexity. In the latter, the moves probably reflect Modi’s intention to directly control the two ministries of Defence and Environment without being seen to be doing so.
It is quite likely that the prime minister is still looking for a suitable defence minister. Having included Swaraj, one of the key dissenting voices against him inside the party, in the Cabinet Committee on Security (PMO-Home-Finance-Defence), Modi could not have accommodated another whose loyalty was suspect. Since none of his younger protégés probably has the stature to share the South Block with him and Swaraj, he wanted to run the Ministry of Defence by proxy for now and parked it with his closest colleague.
It is possible that Javadekar got the environment ministry for the very same reason. To revive the economy and help investor sentiment, the industry is banking on the new government to remove green bottlenecks and clear pending projects worth $7 billion. This will require bypassing a number of legal and procedural barriers at the green ministry. It suits Modi to have a part-timer at Paryavaran Bhawan, at least till he finds a suitable candidate, and let the PMO exercise complete control.
From that perspective, the choice of the ‘caretaker’ environment minister is apt. Javadekar has always been vocal against green regulations and had launched a scathing attack on the UPA government before the polls for blocking development and getting back to the era of red tapism and license raj in the form of environmental clearances. Hours after the oath-taking ceremony on Monday, the industry welcomed the new green minister’s statement made in an interview with ANIthat “poverty is the biggest disaster” and “India needs a window for growth” because there was no contradiction between environmental protection and development.
The other set of laws that are likely to challenge the new government’s promise of rapid growth are the ones that safeguard tribal rights. The choice of Jual Oram, who served as India’s first Tribal Affairs minister (1999-2004) under AB Vajpayee, for the same post is curious. Oram has long beencommitted to fighting the proposed mining of Kandadhar hills by South Korean steel major POSCO in Sundergarh, his constituency in Odisha. One hopes Kandadhar will not become the new government’s sole mascot of tribal empowerment, just like Niyamgiri did for the UPA while bulldozers flattened tribal homes elsewhere.
There remain two riders, though. While Modi the super-CM ran the entire government in Gujarat, he was assisted by his chosen bureaucrats in the departments and an able team of technocrats outside the government. While a few key appointments have been made, the complete picture of Modi’s trusted league of babus in Delhi is yet to emerge. Likewise, it is yet unclear who will help the super-PMO from outside to run the key ministries parked with young ministers.
And finally, that fundamental question of scale. It is one thing to run a state, largely homogenous and one the country’s most developed, single-handedly; quite another to repeat that feat when it comes to making sense of and finding solutions for a nation of India’s size and diversity. Modi has the mandate to replicate his Gujarat model, both its means and the end, for the entire country. The only fear bigger than that he may fail is that he may succeed. But then, who is to say that Modi the prime minister won’t improvise a new model for India.

So, Modi is the strongest but what’s with the liberals crying foul?

The rise of the right wing politics poses a great challenge to the liberal. But slighting a mandate and crying foul at the new dispensation even before it takes over is both unfair and self-defeating.

FirstPost, 24 May, 2014

It’s been a week since the magnitude of the BJP’s victory surprised many, including myself, who expected the party to score in the 180-220 range. The sweeping mandate and the sociopolitical churnings that delivered it deserve threadbare analysis. But what surprised me more, post-May 16, is the breathless public paranoia of many opposed to the very idea of Narendra Modi.
Hold on before you call the colour of my knickers. Like many, I still do not buy the majoritarian politics and the neo-liberal economy Modi and his party have championed so far. Not even in the garb of nationalism and development. Not that we were sold on the politics of minority appeasement and the same neo-liberal policies that the Congress pursued as secularism and its recipe for growth. 
But it is one thing to oppose the politics of Modi-led BJP; quite another to question its decisive mandate or air unsettling premonitions even before the new government assumes office. 
We are told that the BJP’s overall vote share of 31% points to a limited mandate. But the party contested only 428 seats where its actual vote share is 39.75%. This is consistent with the trend of no political party ever winning single-party majority in India with a vote share of less than 40%. The first time the Congress lost power was in 1977 when its vote share dropped to 34.5%. In 1967, it had a modest majority of 283 seats and yet a vote share of 40.78%. This time, if you add the allies, the NDA’s overall vote share rises to 38.2 per cent. That is as good as it gets in a multi-party contest.
Others are ruing the absence of a tangible Opposition and the non-representation of minorities in Parliament. I was too young to remember if similar concerns were raised when the Congress won 414 out of 533 seats in the 1984 Lok Sabha polls. Barring the Telegu Desam (30) and the Left Front (33), only the AIADMK (12) and the Janata Party (10) reached the double digit. Coming soon after the carnage of thousands of Sikhs, did that landslide Congress victory appear immoral to many? 
I don’t recall how many squirmed while putting their future into the hands of Rajiv Gandhi, a first-time MP, who knew more about the shaking earth and falling trees than governance in 1984. What did we get in the next five years? On the downside, there were the Bofors scandal, reports of black money stashed in Swiss bank accounts (and, later, an admission by the KGB that it funded Rajiv Gandhi). And, of course, the ignominy of the Muslim Women (Protection of Rights on Divorce) Act 1986 in the Shah Bano case. 
Why this chicken run?         AFP/FirstPost
Nearly three decades on, lament many, a Hindu consolidation has made the minority vote redundant. But nobody is asking what, other than the BJP’s clever and morally unburdened solicitations, made such a mobilization possible? Could it possibly be the qualm-less political tradition of minority appeasement? 
Yes, the BJP did not bother to field enough Muslim candidates this time. But how many the other parties did in the so-called non-Muslim seats? May we wonder when and how the practice of fielding Muslim candidates only in constituencies with a sizeable Muslim vote took root? And agree that, sooner or later, a majoritarian party was bound to turn the tables? 
Instead, the liberals have pressed the denial button, particularly on social media. Those overseas are thanking their stars that they “don’t live in a Modified India”. The domicile is yet to reconcile with “a mass-murderer who didn’t even apologize” occupying the top office. One of them now faces jail for his Holocaust comment on Facebook. 
Like many, I do not think Modi can deny responsibility for the carnage that took place under his watch. But the liberals and his political opposition at the Centre had more than a decade to bring him to book for the crime they believe he committed. Perhaps they were feeling lazy but Modi has not been held guilty by any court of law yet. And if the liberals think that saying sorry can exonerate Modi of mass murder, why were they baying for the blood of one Tejpal who tendered a written apology for his lapse of judgment? 
Going by Modi’s records, the fear of communal polarization and a growth rush entailing dilution of regulatory laws that protect our natural resources is real. He has come to power riding on an expensive campaign that combined Hindutva and development and nearly two-fifths of Indians who cared to vote bought that idea of India. The liberals must brace for a tough battle if Modi in his prime ministerial avatar continues to play pro-business and stokes majoritarianism. 
But running like headless chickens crying doom will not help that fight. The last time a prime minister had such a majority, we had a boom in computers, aviation and telecom and yet Mr Clean had to pay for a string of corruption charges. Modi and his government will have to be watched, assessed and applauded or opposed for every move they make. Those who believe that Modi has sold a gleaming lemon to his voters cannot jump the gun before their premonitions come true. 
It is unlikely though that the Modi voter will be disillusioned too soon. Incentivizing SEZs, easing up land acquisition and opening up forests and rivers for mines and dams always create wealth and jobs in the short term. But the poor majority suffers the consequences and the bubbles burst eventually. The global economy follows a roughly decadal boom-and-bust cycle and, if the Modi government goes for extractive growth, the liberal will certainly have her chance by 2024, if not earlier.
But who is to believe that even then India will have an alternative? The concept of choosing the lesser evil fell flat when the least of evils, the liberal evil, turned out to be evil enough in the last decade. The real challenge before the liberals today is to build and offer an alternative over the next decade while watching against attempts at polarization, plunder of natural resources and marginalization of the poor. 

Eternal vigil, the cliché goes, is the price of freedom. Too bad the liberals in their comfort zone have overlooked the darkness under the lamp for far too long. Crying foul now in the name of freedom of expression even before a Modi government is in place denies both Modi and liberalism a fair chance.

Can You Save Tigers in a War Zone?

There are more guns than tigers or elephants inside Jharkhand’s Palamu tiger reserve, but none with the forest department. Forest guards here don’t wear uniforms or carry firearms, try to avoid the loggers, poachers and sand mafia, and suffer violence from both the Maoists and the security forces. Caught in their crossfire in two of India’s poorest districts, these guards struggle daily to save this precious forest, its wildlife and their own lives.

Yahoo News, 22 May, 2014

It’s early April, barely a week before the Lok Sabha polls on 10 April. We are on the north-south Betla-Mahuadanr blacktop road that cuts through Jharkhand’s Palamu tiger reserve. Even before I set out for Maromar, I had gathered what seemed like an open secret. A 200-strong contingent of Maoists was apparently camping at Latoo village, a few kilometers from Kujurum across Burha river, for a few days. The CRPF camp at Baresand, it seemed, did not have orders to venture in and engage the rebels.

Every 15-20km on this arterial road, security forces have set up fortified camps. Maoists have blasted a number of Forest Rest Houses, such as Mundu (2004), Maromar and Kujurum (2007), for housing security forces but that has not stopped the CRPF from fortifying and permanently occupying forest facilities at Kerh and Labhar.

“Nobody knows at how many points these roads are rigged. They (Maoists) put 30-50kg explosives at undetectable depth when the road is laid or repaired. Later, they just dig through the flank [and place a detonator] whenever they want to trigger a blast,” warned a CRPF commander I spoke to the previous day.

In December 2011, in one such blast, the Maoists targeted Chatra MP Inder Singh Namdhari’s car a few kilometers from Garu village. Eight policemen shadowing the legislator in another vehicle were killed. We drive by the charred remains of that armored Tata 407, still lying where it was tossed aside, on our way to the Maromar FRH that was taken over by the CRPF for poll duty.

The officer occupying the only room with a functional toilet seems puzzled that I was issued a tourist permit to stay there. But he graciously offers me tea and some advice. “We control five kilometers around each camp. But don’t go towards Kujurum. They (Maoists) are holing up there since we have intensified flushing operations. Besides, some of our guys are new in this area and may feel edgy.”

Barely a month ago, a jittery CRPF patrol and a team of Jharkhand Jaguars, the state police’s anti-Maoist unit, fired at each other in the neighboring Kuku-Piri forests, injuring three including a CRPF deputy commandant. “Mistaken identity,” the officer says, shaking his head disapprovingly at my crew cut hair.

A few kilometers down the road at Baresand, I leave my SUV on the blacktop road and look out for a forest guard Shivkumar. “Aap ko Kujurum dekhna hai toh hum chalenge (we’ll go if you want to visit Kujurum),” he assures me. “Par apka marji, wahan koi garranty nahin hai (but it’s your call, there’s no guarantee for safety there).”

On 30 March this year, I am told, Maoist rebels warned the forest staff to stay away from their strongholds of Kutku and Kujurum forests bordering Chhattisgarh. The 15-km dirt track to Kujurum village in the core of the reserve starts from Baresand where Maoist rebels beheaded two ‘informers’ just outside the forest rest house last year. “Before that, in 2011, they 
shot another two barely 500 meters from here,” said Hiralal, a local wildlife tracker with the forest department, at the Baresand check-post.

Earlier in the day, I met one of the seven forest staff beaten severely by Maoist guerillas inside Baresand FRH compound some six years ago. “They had warned us against repairing the dirt road to Kujurum. Then one evening, as we sat around a fire here after the day’s work, they walked in, tied us up and thrashed us mercilessly,” he recalled. The road works have not resumed since.

* * *

Shivkumar shouts for Ajay, a young forest guard, and two shiny green motorbikes gifted by a Mumbai NGO. We take the dirt track from Baresand through Jumri village into the forest. Suddenly, the landscape turns red. It’s a riot of fiery palas, flaming kusum and semal in late bloom.

Kujurum is one of the relatively less degraded stretches of this splendid forest dominated by sal, mahua, bamboo, saaj, khair and dhaora. Spread across 1,000 sq km, Palamu tiger reserve (PTR) was one of India’s first nine notified in 1973. Part of the Hazaribagh (land of thousand tigers) landscape, it remained a blind spot on the nation’s development map and became a hub of Maoist insurgency in the 1990s.

Decades of subsistence and commercial poaching almost wiped out the deer population outside the Betla national park area. But the elephant numbers are up, particularly around Kujurum. “It is very difficult to use this road after 4pm when jumbos take over. Also, one needs to watch out for bear attacks,” cautioned Ajay, adding that the 300-odd residents of Kujurum have to risk it all to reach the nearest referral hospital at Garu, 35 km away, in medical emergencies.

The dirt track bears no sign of maintenance. Ajay drives cautiously, dodging tree trunks laid as roadblocks. At one such barricade a few kilometers from Kujurum, he slows down to honk in a Morse code-like sequence. “This is to signal that we are from the forest department,” he whispers to me while scanning the trees around us. Not a twig cracks. He quickly changes gear and takes off.

The village is picturesque. We drive by a large pond, skirt a makeshift school and reach Kujurum FRH, rebuilt recently after the original structure was burnt down by Maoists in 2007. Across a patch of cropland stands an unfinished construction. A pucca sarkari school building was coming up but the construction work has been stopped. The village panchayat apparently ‘used up’ the sanctioned funds.

As we walk around, a message arrives that we should hurry. Or so I guess, because there is a hushed, terse aside between the villagers and the forest staff. I’m told life is not easy in Kujurum. The poverty is there for anyone to see. Elephants routinely raid these fields and leopards target livestock. There are also tales of occasional tigers. Many residents apparently bought into the government’s idea of relocating the village two years ago, but nobody talks about it anymore.

However, like all villagers inside Palamu, they enjoy Maoist protection. There are several instances when forest staff have been hauled up by the rebels and fined for booking wildlife offenders in the reserve. One forester who seized a cycle with langur meat had to buy the poacher a new cycle. Only a few weeks ago, another was picked up and humiliated by Maoists for beating up a villager involved in illegal felling.

“Two of us have been posted at Kujurum. We are safe as long as we do our job as per rules and don’t act highhanded,” Ajay shifts on his toes. The shadows are lengthening. “Par voh jab bhi bulate hain, andar kanp-kapi lag jati hai (but it sends shivers inside every time the Maoists summon us),” adds Shivkumar warily. “You never know…” 
* * *

One winter afternoon last February, standing next to a makeshift bathan (cattle pen) inside the forest near Latoo, field director S Kazmi faced a strange dilemma. A seasoned Palamu hand, he had served here as a Divisional Forest Officer (DFO) for more than seven years till 1998, when he narrowly escaped a landmine blast that killed his driver and a wildlife tracker. He buried that ghost in 2011 and returned as the field director. But Palamu had plunged deeper into anarchy in those 12 years.

On that February afternoon, an elephant death was reported near Panchnandi and Kazmi reached the spot with his team. The putrefying carcass suggested that the animal had died of poisoning. Kazmi spotted traces of buffalo dung near the spot and asked his team to comb the area. The search led them to a cluster of makeshift enclosures and sheds in the middle of the forest, and a family that had moved in from Chhattisgarh.

It turned out that the same family had complained to Maoists against a forest guard the previous year, which led to his utter humiliation in a kangaroo court. Emboldened by the presence of their big boss, Kazmi’s men were now hell bent on destroying the illegally-built bathan and confiscating a precious stock of ghee (clarified butter).

“There was only this poor woman and her small girl who sat in a corner. The woman argued with my guards, who said they would not budge even if they were to lose their jobs. Could I let my men go on a rampage that would land them in trouble? Could I stop them and break whatever remained of their morale? I wondered what the little girl was thinking. What memory of the sarkar, the State, would she grow up with?” recounted Kazmi.

There was nothing to link the family to the dead elephant. After a few tense minutes, the field director asked his men to uproot the pen, gave the woman 24 hours to take the ghee outside the forest and tried to strike a conversation with the little girl. “She was very shy but spoke clearly. I gave her a hundred rupee note. Maybe not the best balancing act but it was all I could think of,” he said.

The poverty in the villages inside the PTR spread across Palamu and Latehar districts, said one of the CRPF commanders I spoke to, was nothing like anything he had seen anywhere else in the country. “Guns may help save the moment. But we cannot make these people accountable for anything unless and until they have the very basics,” he said resignedly.

If the state’s development agencies have given this area a miss, it is partly because 17 villages and 190 sq km of PTR are supposed to go under water if and when the sluice gates are installed in a dam on the north Koel river, which was constructed back in the 1980s. The fates of the dam, these villages and the tiger reserve have hung fire since 1993 when work was stopped for violation of the Forest Conservation Act 1980.

“The fact that we still have some grip on Palamu in the middle of such chaos is because the people are simple. But they have nothing,” said Anil Mishra, one of Palamu’s two DFOs. “You will not find a single hutment with doors in our forest villages. They are honest people but also so poor that there is simply nothing to steal.”
* * *

A key employer in Palamu, the forest department spends more than Rs 50 lakh a year in wages for daily hiring. Yet, PTR is woefully short of manpower. Barring a few forest guards such as Ajay who was hired on humane grounds after his father died in harness, vacancies have not been filled since 1979. “The proposed strength of guards in my area is 129 while the sanctioned posts are 96. At present, I have only eight and four of them will retire this year,” DFO Mishra chuckled.

No wonder only so much protection is possible. In 2012, an elephant was shot in the belly in CRPF-Maoist crossfire. Backed by Maoists, the local timber mafia has cleaned out khair and teak from most parts of the PTR, according to local media sources in Daltonganj. Poaching for bush meat is common and among the buyers, villagers in Garu allege, are security force personnel.

Mishra skirted the allegations carefully. “Given the ground reality and our limited strength, we are doing the best we can. The camera traps in Betla and Garu have thrown up tiger images. Initially, Maoists were not comfortable with the cameras but we convinced them. Our staff routinely patrols the PTR on foot, including difficult zones such as Kutku. Security forces have occupied most of our FRHs. We understand their need but it makes us vulnerable,” he argued.

To Kazmi’s credit, he pushed the security forces out of the forest facilities in the tourism hub of Betla in 2012. The same year, security forces and the intelligence bureau demanded sensitive information such as GPS locations of water bodies from the PTR authority, to track Maoists camping close to water sources through satellite imagery. Again, Kazmi put his foot down to protect his staff.

“This action on our part will lead to Naxals dubbing us as police informers… [and the] punishment meted out to suspected police informers by Naxals is extremely severe, including possibilities of execution. This will make the movement of Project Tiger personnel into the forests impossible and it will completely cripple the Project Tiger administration,” he wrote.

His staff could not agree more. “We are safe as long as we listen to the Naxals. We don’t wear uniform or carry firearms. We try to avoid the security forces. But it’s not easy as there are so many (security) camps inside the reserve,” explained tracker Hiralal, adding that jawans too have manhandled forest guards and daily wagers hired by the forest department, branding them Maoist sympathizers.
* * *

This atmosphere of fear, pointed out Kazmi, did not stop the PTR management from reaching out to the people. In 2012, DFO Mishra took 16 villagers from four PTR villages to Maharashtra’s Satpura tiger reserve to give them a firsthand feel of how the villagers there benefitted from relocating outside the forests. On their return, the impressed lot from Kujurum and Jaigir agreed to move out of the PTR. “Project Tiger was ready to fund the exercise. But it was shot down by the headquarters from Ranchi,” rued Mishra.

Surprisingly, Jharkhand’s Principal Chief Conservator of Forest AK Malhotra described the flagship relocation project of the National Tiger Conservation Authority (NTCA) as “an alien scheme for Indian situations” before going on to justify his department’s stand. “We had plans for a couple of villages but we decided not to pursue it. It’s a Naxal-infested area and we don’t want to give any excuse to Maoists to open new fronts,” he said.

Sources in Ranchi’s Van Bhawan revealed that the forest brass was following a policy of ‘minimum initiative’ for Palamu. With the Naxal organizations splintering and a section of the state administration backing the breakaway groups such as Tritiya Prastuti Committee, the focus in PTR has shifted from the forest department to security agencies. The worsening chaos has spawned upstarts such as the Green Army, a breakaway Maoist outfit, which has burnt down several cargo vehicles to extort money from the owners in the last few months.

In this free-for-all situation, young, dedicated local wildlife trackers like Laltu feel lost. During his long walks through the treacherous forests of Kutku, he routinely encounters the sand and boulder mafia. “They work in groups of 20-30 people and have (manual) stone crushers inside the forest. At each point, up to 10 tractors do daily rounds to smuggle the material out. How can just two of us – a forest guard and I – take them on?”

Kazmi did not have an answer. Instead, he referred to his response to a list of concerns flagged by the Ministry of Home Affairs in 2010 regarding forest governance in tribal areas. “People say this mess is due to tribal anger and the tribal is angry at the forest department. It’s a lie,” he said. The development and security agencies, not the forest department, he wrote in a letter to the Ministry of Environment and Forests in 2010, were responsible for the lack of education, healthcare, drinking water, law and order, roads, banking facility, the failure of poverty alleviation schemes and the public distribution system.

“The forest department is the only government agency to have field presence in remote tribal areas. And yet we do not get to build capacity here in terms of staff, training, funds and mandate. Without fighting poverty in those remote hamlets and villages, how far can we conserve our forests and wildlife?” he asked. “Has life really changed for Palamu’s people in 20 years?”

I threw the question to a few villagers and drew a blank. An old man volunteered hesitantly, “With so many guns around, dacoits are fewer now on the (Betla-Mahuadanr) road.” Shivkumar said his knees have become weaker. “I’ll retire this year but Ajay has a life to live in Palamu.” Ajay smiled and said, “It’s been a gamble but I like my job.”

Guiding us to Kechki FRH where Satyajit Ray filmed his Aranyer Din Ratri (Days and Nights in the Forest) 45 years ago, young Laltu went quiet and gave the question some thought. “Don’t honk inside the forest,” he broke his silence to admonish my driver and turned to me. “Let’s go find tiger pugmarks in Betla.”

Names of those who feared for their safety or requested anonymity have been changed.

Shipwrecks Everywhere

The BJP tsunami has left the regional parties devastated in its wake. Most are rattled by the drubbing in their home turf, the rest wary of the rising saffron surge. The satraps have already pressed the panic button but how big is the challenge ahead

Tehelka, 22 May, 2014

It is unprecedented. Probably for the first time, a national party failed to win a single seat in a Lok Sabha election. But the  is not alone. Two major regional parties — the DMK and the National Conference — suffered the same fate. Add to the list two national — the SP (5) and the (1) — and two regional outfits — AAP (4) and (2) — who together won just 12 seats. In 2009, these parties sent 89 MPs to to the Lok Sabha. If you take out the newbie AAP from the equation, that is a loss of 81 seats.
Those who surfed the wave — the  in Tamil Nadu or the Trinamool Congress in Bengal — cannot sit smug either. They are grappling to contain the saffron surge that may upset all equations in the next Assembly polls. The BJP has won a seat in Tamil Nadu with an overall vote share of 5.5 percent, while the BJP-led six-party alliance won another and came second in five constituencies. The headache for Mamata Banerjee is bigger in Bengal, where the BJP bagged two seats and its vote share almost trebled to 17 percent.
Soon after the results were announced on 16 May, both Amma and Didi swung into action. Despite an emphatic sweep in 37 of the 40 seats in the state, J  sacked three ministers and six district heads for the party’s loss in Kanyakumari, Dharmapuri and Puducherry to the BJP and its allies PMK and AINRC, respectively. With Assembly polls due in two years, it was a clear message to her party rank and file that no laxity would be tolerated.
In Bengal, local MLA Malay Ghatak was made to step down as agriculture minister to discourage infighting that apparently compromised the chances of the party’s Asansol candidate Dola Sen, considered an outsider, against the BJP’s Babul Supriyo, who won by a margin of over 70,000 votes. Mamata was furious that a Trinamool rally on 5 May failed to attract even a 15,000-strong crowd at the same venue where  addressed about 1.5 lakh people the previous day.
If the winners with home runs are so unforgiving, one cannot blame the losers for venting their anger and frustration on party functionaries. On 20 May, Mayawati dissolved the party’s zonal committees, headed by her close confidants and prominent Muslim faces such as Naseemuddin Siddiqui and Munquad Ali, and the district committees. Instead, she appointed coordinators in charge of each of the 80 parliamentary constituencies of the state. She said those candidates who gave up the fight and did not come even second or third would not get tickets in the next election.
The same day,  Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav dismissed 36 SP leaders who enjoyed the status of a minister of state. The move came a day after party president Mulayam Singh Yadav pulled up his son for the party’s pathetic show. “When I was the CM, we won 36 seats in 2004 and three in the bypolls. This time, he (Akhilesh) is the CM and we won five seats. Why? With whom will I sit in Parliament?” Yadav fumed at a party meet where a number of defeated candidates apparently complained that several of Akhilesh’s ministers sabotaged their chances in the General Election.
In Bihar,  president Sharad Yadav gunned for Nitish Kumar, who was forced to step down as CM, and briefly reached out to Lalu Yadav’s RJD in a bid to reoccupy the non-BJP, non-Congress political space in the state. In Tamil Nadu, M Karunanidhi’s heir apparent MK Stalin resigned from all party posts, taking responsibility for the DMK’s rout, after he had handpicked candidates for the state and Puducherry, but withdrew it within hours on his father’s insistence. Elder brother MK Alagiri, expelled ahead of elections, predicted the “drama” the moment Stalin resigned.
The unexpected electoral drubbing has also drove AAP leader  to apologise to Delhiites on 21 May for relinquishing responsibility as CM after a 49- day stint and signal fresh polls as the only way out. Never mind that a day earlier, he had requested Delhi Lieutenant Governor Najeeb Jung not to dissolve the Assembly before he held public meetings to seek the people’s opinion on forming the government again. But this time, the Congress refused to extend support.
With Assembly polls due in six months, the NC government in Jammu & Kashmir is desperate to win people’s trust back. On 20 May, it ended the four -year- long SMS ban on prepaid cell phones. Chief Minister Omar Abdullah also tweeted that he would propose scrapping the New Recruitment Policy with immediate effect on 21 May.
Junking the job policy that entitles new appointees in Class-III and Class-IV categories only to a fixed salary equivalent to 50-75 percent of the basic pay during the first five years of service will cost the exchequer dearly. Also in the pipeline are populist measures such as reduction in power tariff for domestic consumers, removal of ban on hiring casual labourers and filling up of 70,000 vacancies in government departments.
The chicken run notwithstanding, how grave is the saffron challenge on the ground? Take Bihar, for example. Between them, the RJD (20 percent) and the  (15.8 percent) have as much vote share as that of the BJP (29.4 percent) and the LJP (6.4 percent). In Tamil Nadu, the DMK has suffered a serious setback but still commands the second largest vote share of 23.6 percent behind the . In Kerala, the BJP vote share has crossed the 10 percent mark but the Left still retains nearly as much support base as the Congress.
In Bengal, the once-invincible CPM’s vote share has crumbled to a shocking 22.7 percent, just six percentage points above the BJP. But rather than worrying about the saffron surge, the party has been complaining about the strong-arm poll management strategies the  inherited from its predecessor in power. If the BJP’s consolidation and the Left’s organisational rout continue in the state, the latter may well have to relinquish the principal Opposition space in the 2016 Assembly polls.
The NC also faces its toughest challenge in J&K, where its vote share has dwindled to a mere 11.1 percent. Together with the Congress, the UPA vote share of 34 percent is almost 19 percentage points behind the BJP (32.4 percent) and the former NDA ally (20.5 percent). Omar will need a miracle to continue in his office after the Assembly polls due later this year.
In , both the SP (22.6 percent) and the  (19.6 percent) have lost ground. But the vote share does not reflect the total rout that the seat share suggests. In fact, the Congress took two seats in the state with a vote share of just 7.5 percent while the  returned empty-handed with more than two -and- a-half times the support. Though it does not have a single MP, the  has emerged as the third largest party, nationally, with a vote share of 4.1 percent, behind the BJP and the Congress.
AAP may not have won a single Lok Sabha seat from Delhi and, in fact, lost 60 out of 70 Assembly segments to the BJP, but the party’s vote share went up by 4 percentage points in the state. Under pressure within the party, Kejriwal even tried to form the government again. Now that AAP cannot impress with governance, it faces the uphill task of reassuring the middle class by persuasion alone.
In the following pages, TEHELKA correspondents have reported from across the country the upheavals in the regional parties that were hit by the Modi tsunami and what they may yet be able to salvage in time for the next battle. It is not going to be easy, certainly not during the customary honeymoon period the Modi sarkar is entitled to at the Centre.