The rise of the right wing politics poses a great challenge to the liberal. But slighting a mandate and crying foul at the new dispensation even before it takes over is both unfair and self-defeating.
FirstPost, 24 May, 2014
It’s been a week since the magnitude of the BJP’s victory surprised many, including myself, who expected the party to score in the 180-220 range. The sweeping mandate and the sociopolitical churnings that delivered it deserve threadbare analysis. But what surprised me more, post-May 16, is the breathless public paranoia of many opposed to the very idea of Narendra Modi.
Hold on before you call the colour of my knickers. Like many, I still do not buy the majoritarian politics and the neo-liberal economy Modi and his party have championed so far. Not even in the garb of nationalism and development. Not that we were sold on the politics of minority appeasement and the same neo-liberal policies that the Congress pursued as secularism and its recipe for growth.
But it is one thing to oppose the politics of Modi-led BJP; quite another to question its decisive mandate or air unsettling premonitions even before the new government assumes office.
We are told that the BJP’s overall vote share of 31% points to a limited mandate. But the party contested only 428 seats where its actual vote share is 39.75%. This is consistent with the trend of no political party ever winning single-party majority in India with a vote share of less than 40%. The first time the Congress lost power was in 1977 when its vote share dropped to 34.5%. In 1967, it had a modest majority of 283 seats and yet a vote share of 40.78%. This time, if you add the allies, the NDA’s overall vote share rises to 38.2 per cent. That is as good as it gets in a multi-party contest.
Others are ruing the absence of a tangible Opposition and the non-representation of minorities in Parliament. I was too young to remember if similar concerns were raised when the Congress won 414 out of 533 seats in the 1984 Lok Sabha polls. Barring the Telegu Desam (30) and the Left Front (33), only the AIADMK (12) and the Janata Party (10) reached the double digit. Coming soon after the carnage of thousands of Sikhs, did that landslide Congress victory appear immoral to many?
I don’t recall how many squirmed while putting their future into the hands of Rajiv Gandhi, a first-time MP, who knew more about the shaking earth and falling trees than governance in 1984. What did we get in the next five years? On the downside, there were the Bofors scandal, reports of black money stashed in Swiss bank accounts (and, later, an admission by the KGB that it funded Rajiv Gandhi). And, of course, the ignominy of the Muslim Women (Protection of Rights on Divorce) Act 1986 in the Shah Bano case.
Nearly three decades on, lament many, a Hindu consolidation has made the minority vote redundant. But nobody is asking what, other than the BJP’s clever and morally unburdened solicitations, made such a mobilization possible? Could it possibly be the qualm-less political tradition of minority appeasement?
Yes, the BJP did not bother to field enough Muslim candidates this time. But how many the other parties did in the so-called non-Muslim seats? May we wonder when and how the practice of fielding Muslim candidates only in constituencies with a sizeable Muslim vote took root? And agree that, sooner or later, a majoritarian party was bound to turn the tables?
Instead, the liberals have pressed the denial button, particularly on social media. Those overseas are thanking their stars that they “don’t live in a Modified India”. The domicile is yet to reconcile with “a mass-murderer who didn’t even apologize” occupying the top office. One of them now faces jail for his Holocaust comment on Facebook.
Like many, I do not think Modi can deny responsibility for the carnage that took place under his watch. But the liberals and his political opposition at the Centre had more than a decade to bring him to book for the crime they believe he committed. Perhaps they were feeling lazy but Modi has not been held guilty by any court of law yet. And if the liberals think that saying sorry can exonerate Modi of mass murder, why were they baying for the blood of one Tejpal who tendered a written apology for his lapse of judgment?
Going by Modi’s records, the fear of communal polarization and a growth rush entailing dilution of regulatory laws that protect our natural resources is real. He has come to power riding on an expensive campaign that combined Hindutva and development and nearly two-fifths of Indians who cared to vote bought that idea of India. The liberals must brace for a tough battle if Modi in his prime ministerial avatar continues to play pro-business and stokes majoritarianism.
But running like headless chickens crying doom will not help that fight. The last time a prime minister had such a majority, we had a boom in computers, aviation and telecom and yet Mr Clean had to pay for a string of corruption charges. Modi and his government will have to be watched, assessed and applauded or opposed for every move they make. Those who believe that Modi has sold a gleaming lemon to his voters cannot jump the gun before their premonitions come true.
It is unlikely though that the Modi voter will be disillusioned too soon. Incentivizing SEZs, easing up land acquisition and opening up forests and rivers for mines and dams always create wealth and jobs in the short term. But the poor majority suffers the consequences and the bubbles burst eventually. The global economy follows a roughly decadal boom-and-bust cycle and, if the Modi government goes for extractive growth, the liberal will certainly have her chance by 2024, if not earlier.
But who is to believe that even then India will have an alternative? The concept of choosing the lesser evil fell flat when the least of evils, the liberal evil, turned out to be evil enough in the last decade. The real challenge before the liberals today is to build and offer an alternative over the next decade while watching against attempts at polarization, plunder of natural resources and marginalization of the poor.
Eternal vigil, the cliché goes, is the price of freedom. Too bad the liberals in their comfort zone have overlooked the darkness under the lamp for far too long. Crying foul now in the name of freedom of expression even before a Modi government is in place denies both Modi and liberalism a fair chance.
FirstPost, 24 May, 2014
It’s been a week since the magnitude of the BJP’s victory surprised many, including myself, who expected the party to score in the 180-220 range. The sweeping mandate and the sociopolitical churnings that delivered it deserve threadbare analysis. But what surprised me more, post-May 16, is the breathless public paranoia of many opposed to the very idea of Narendra Modi.
Hold on before you call the colour of my knickers. Like many, I still do not buy the majoritarian politics and the neo-liberal economy Modi and his party have championed so far. Not even in the garb of nationalism and development. Not that we were sold on the politics of minority appeasement and the same neo-liberal policies that the Congress pursued as secularism and its recipe for growth.
But it is one thing to oppose the politics of Modi-led BJP; quite another to question its decisive mandate or air unsettling premonitions even before the new government assumes office.
We are told that the BJP’s overall vote share of 31% points to a limited mandate. But the party contested only 428 seats where its actual vote share is 39.75%. This is consistent with the trend of no political party ever winning single-party majority in India with a vote share of less than 40%. The first time the Congress lost power was in 1977 when its vote share dropped to 34.5%. In 1967, it had a modest majority of 283 seats and yet a vote share of 40.78%. This time, if you add the allies, the NDA’s overall vote share rises to 38.2 per cent. That is as good as it gets in a multi-party contest.
Others are ruing the absence of a tangible Opposition and the non-representation of minorities in Parliament. I was too young to remember if similar concerns were raised when the Congress won 414 out of 533 seats in the 1984 Lok Sabha polls. Barring the Telegu Desam (30) and the Left Front (33), only the AIADMK (12) and the Janata Party (10) reached the double digit. Coming soon after the carnage of thousands of Sikhs, did that landslide Congress victory appear immoral to many?
I don’t recall how many squirmed while putting their future into the hands of Rajiv Gandhi, a first-time MP, who knew more about the shaking earth and falling trees than governance in 1984. What did we get in the next five years? On the downside, there were the Bofors scandal, reports of black money stashed in Swiss bank accounts (and, later, an admission by the KGB that it funded Rajiv Gandhi). And, of course, the ignominy of the Muslim Women (Protection of Rights on Divorce) Act 1986 in the Shah Bano case.
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| Why this chicken run? AFP/FirstPost |
Yes, the BJP did not bother to field enough Muslim candidates this time. But how many the other parties did in the so-called non-Muslim seats? May we wonder when and how the practice of fielding Muslim candidates only in constituencies with a sizeable Muslim vote took root? And agree that, sooner or later, a majoritarian party was bound to turn the tables?
Instead, the liberals have pressed the denial button, particularly on social media. Those overseas are thanking their stars that they “don’t live in a Modified India”. The domicile is yet to reconcile with “a mass-murderer who didn’t even apologize” occupying the top office. One of them now faces jail for his Holocaust comment on Facebook.
Like many, I do not think Modi can deny responsibility for the carnage that took place under his watch. But the liberals and his political opposition at the Centre had more than a decade to bring him to book for the crime they believe he committed. Perhaps they were feeling lazy but Modi has not been held guilty by any court of law yet. And if the liberals think that saying sorry can exonerate Modi of mass murder, why were they baying for the blood of one Tejpal who tendered a written apology for his lapse of judgment?
Going by Modi’s records, the fear of communal polarization and a growth rush entailing dilution of regulatory laws that protect our natural resources is real. He has come to power riding on an expensive campaign that combined Hindutva and development and nearly two-fifths of Indians who cared to vote bought that idea of India. The liberals must brace for a tough battle if Modi in his prime ministerial avatar continues to play pro-business and stokes majoritarianism.
But running like headless chickens crying doom will not help that fight. The last time a prime minister had such a majority, we had a boom in computers, aviation and telecom and yet Mr Clean had to pay for a string of corruption charges. Modi and his government will have to be watched, assessed and applauded or opposed for every move they make. Those who believe that Modi has sold a gleaming lemon to his voters cannot jump the gun before their premonitions come true.
It is unlikely though that the Modi voter will be disillusioned too soon. Incentivizing SEZs, easing up land acquisition and opening up forests and rivers for mines and dams always create wealth and jobs in the short term. But the poor majority suffers the consequences and the bubbles burst eventually. The global economy follows a roughly decadal boom-and-bust cycle and, if the Modi government goes for extractive growth, the liberal will certainly have her chance by 2024, if not earlier.
But who is to believe that even then India will have an alternative? The concept of choosing the lesser evil fell flat when the least of evils, the liberal evil, turned out to be evil enough in the last decade. The real challenge before the liberals today is to build and offer an alternative over the next decade while watching against attempts at polarization, plunder of natural resources and marginalization of the poor.
Eternal vigil, the cliché goes, is the price of freedom. Too bad the liberals in their comfort zone have overlooked the darkness under the lamp for far too long. Crying foul now in the name of freedom of expression even before a Modi government is in place denies both Modi and liberalism a fair chance.
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